Picking & Grinning: UFC 134 Prelims
David Mitchell hopes to shake off the Octagon jitters from his
first UFC bout. | Photo: J. Sherwood
Sherdog.com staff and contributors put their reputations on the line with bold predictions for the UFC 134 “Silva vs. Okami” preliminary card, which streams live on Facebook at 6 p.m. ET/3 p.m. PT and airs live on Spike TV at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on Saturday from the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Lightweights
Spencer Fisher vs. Thiago Tavares
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Rob King: Both these guys have had rollercoaster careers over the last couple of years inside the Octagon, and this fight could be a pink-slip derby. It’s no secret that Tavares will be looking for the submission, but I don’t think he’s going to get the stoppage inside the distance. Fisher is very tough and has only been stopped twice in his career. While I don’t think Tavares will get the stoppage, I don’t see much that Fisher can do to him, so I’m going to go with the Brazilian via decision.
Tomasz Marciniak: Tavares’ intentions of testing his standup
have me a bit worried in this fight. The Brazilian would have an
easier time if he tried to exploit Fisher’s lack of takedown
defense, because the American probably wouldn’t be able to tap him.
Striking remains a dicey proposition. Fisher looked a bit
rejuvenated in his last fight against Pearson, but that still
wasn’t enough to get the win; and his power has dissipated. Tavares
had some holes in defense that led to him being knocked out by
Matt
Wiman and Shane
Roller, but I’ll bet on him working hard on those with his new
boxing trainers and eking out a win.
Middleweights
Rousimar Palhares vs. Dan Miller
Jordan Breen: The ball is Palhares’ court here. If he has the gas tank to put Miller on the mat for three rounds, he will win this fight. Miller so often is relegated to playing bottom, and he’ll find no submission success there against Palhares. However, “Toquinho” doesn’t necessarily need the decision. He is one of the division’s most outstanding finishers, with a submission game that blends brute strength and technical precision. Considering that Miller was caught in precarious positions by both Joe Doerksen and Matt Horwich in fights he was dominating, it’s entirely possible Palhares can do likewise; only he can finish the submission and earn himself another victory in the UFC’s middleweight division.
Brian Knapp: A savage combination of power and skill, Palhares is a brute at 185 pounds and perhaps one of the middleweight division’s true dark horses. A suspect gas tank may be all the stands between the Brazilian and his becoming a worthy title contender. Miller, who has never been finished, has come up short in bids against the upper tier at 185 pounds, losing to Nate Marquardt, Michael Bisping, Demian Maia and Chael Sonnen. Palhares fits into that group, and he, too, will turn away the former International Fight League champion on points.
Tristen Critchfield: With his only losses in the last four years coming to Nate Marquardt and Dan Henderson, Palhares is an underrated competitor at 185 pounds. Miller is a black belt who figures to be game against the submissions of Palhares, but that won’t stop the Brazilian from hunting for one of his patented heel hooks. If Miller can outstrike Palhares, he can get the nod from the judges. The guess here is that Palhares catches his opponent off guard at some point in the fight and makes him tap.
Welterweights
Paulo Thiago vs. David Mitchell
Tony Loiseleur: Thiago should be able to acquit himself well in his native Brazil against Mitchell. In what was a wild -- if reckless -- grappling match in Mitchell’s last UFC showing, I'm fairly sure that Thiago should be able to finish him by submission where Anthony Waldburger was unable to.
Knapp: Matchmakers did not do Mitchell any favors here. In Thiago, he faces a rugged and battle-tested fighter who has navigated through the fires of the welterweight division with varying degrees of success. His potent mixture of toughness, excellent submission skills and powerful hands make him a tough out for virtually anyone at 170 pounds. This is quite simply too high a mountain for Mitchell to climb, as Thiago submits him inside two rounds.
Breen: Thiago’s win-one-lose-one nature in the UFC is not surprising. He is incredibly tough, hits hard and has some nasty submissions. Conversely, his defensive wrestling is weak, and he’s seldom technical on the feet. This tends to create a situation where he can flourish with bright spots of offense -- smacking Josh Koscheck, plunking Mike Swick and choking him out -- at times and where he can be positionally dominated at others, as he was in all three of his Octagon losses. In Mitchell, he has the perfect foil: a less developed striker with a dynamic submission game whose wrestling is less effective than his. Thiago can attack Mitchell on the feet or play top and pound away on him. It’s a unanimous verdict or a late stoppage for Thiago, who will creep above .500 in the Octagon once more.
Bantamweights
Raphael Assuncao vs. Johnny Eduardo
Critchfield: Assuncao looks to get back on track after being knocked out by Erik Koch at UFC 128. To right the ship, he’ll get a fellow Brazilian in Eduardo, who is currently riding an 11-fight winning streak. Assuncao has lost three of his last four bouts and will need to give an impressive performance. Both fighters could cancel out each other on the ground, so who can land more when the fight is upright might be the deciding factor; Assuncao by decision.
Todd Martin: Assuncao's career has fallen on tough times of late, but it has come against some of his division’s toughest fighters. He still has a great ground game and can get by on his feet. Eduardo has more momentum going into the fight, but it has also come against a much lower level of competition. Assuncao’s the pick via submission.
Freddie DeFreitas: A split decision win over Yves Jabouin back in 2009 capped a six-fight winning streak for Assuncao. However, since then, he has dropped three of his last four and looked less than inspirational in his lone win over L.C. Davis. Eduardo may not be well known outside of his native Brazil, but the 33-year-old has a ton of experience, having turned pro at the age of 18; and he hasn’t lost a fight in four years. There are a lot of questions surrounding Eduardo in his debut, and I initially leaned towards Assuncao, but I think Eduardo can pull the mild upset and notch a TKO win.
Welterweights
Erick Silva vs. Luis Ramos
DeFreitas: Ramos steps in for Mike Swick on only 18 days’ notice against a very tough prospect in Silva. I would have leaned towards Ramos, but with such little time to prepare for arguably one of the biggest fights of his career, I’m hard-pressed to lay the pick on the Shooto champion. Silva by submission is the pick.
Sariahmed: With Swick out due to a late injury, this bout actually got better. I’d say I’m worried about Ramos taking this fight, having only had a month to prepare, but that seems to be the norm for him. He won the Watch Out Combat Show tournament fighting twice back in April, and this will be fifth time he is taking a bout on less than a month’s notice. The Shooto 168-pound world champion will have his hands full though with X-Gym wunderkind Silva. One of our “10 Brazilians to Watch” for 2011, Silva is 12-1, in no small part because he’s equally adept on the feet as he is with his submission game. Training with a star-studded cast at X-Gym, including Anderson Silva, the Jungle Fight welterweight champion should show why he’s in the UFC with a big showing against “Beicao.”
King: The undercard is filled with guys who are not well known to the public, and this bout is no exception. When in doubt, go with the guy you know. I’ve been hearing about Silva for a while now, and he has proven himself as part of the cream of the crop on the Brazilian scene. I think this should be a nice fight to ease him into the UFC roster and get a win over his fellow countrymen. Give me Silva by submission.
Feathweights
Yuri Alcantara vs. Felipe Arantes
Critchfield: Alcantara makes the move to featherweight from lightweight against Zuffa newcomer Arantes. Alcantara knocked out Ricardo Lamas at WEC 53 and, at a lower weight class, should be too much for Arantes to handle. Alcantara is able to finish Arantes with strikes in the later portion of the bout.
Martin: Alcantara’s debut at 145 is a wise move. Lightweight is the toughest and deepest division in the sport, and Alcantara can get himself recognized more quickly in the featherweight division. He’s a finisher, both standing and on the ground, and looked impressive in his Zuffa debut. Arantes taking the fight on short notice will provide Alcantara’s first UFC win.
Sariahmed: I’m fascinated about how the fans will react to Brazilian vs. Brazilian matches. Will they pretend one of the fighters is actually from South Africa and just boo him on principle? Will the fans implode from deciding who they have to root for? Or will we actually get some genuine excitement based off the action in the cage? As for the two fighters, this will be my first time watching either of them, so I was torn about how to pick a winner. I went with the better nickname. Arantes is nicknamed “Sertanejo” which according to the Google machine is a type of Brazilian country music. Meanwhile, Alcantara’s nickname is “Marajo,” which is just an island located at the mouth of the Amazon. Nicknaming yourself after an island seems out of place, and I say that knowing full well there’s a guy nicknamed “The Puerto Rican Game Cock” in the Fight Finder. I’ll take Arantes to win.
Bantamweights
Yves Jabouin vs. Ian Loveland
Martin: Jabouin has dropped three of four fights, but he hasn’t looked bad in the process. He’s a fun striker to watch, and his ground game isn’t bad, either. I don’t think Loveland has the skills to beat him standing and isn’t the sort of takedown artist to keep Jabouin on his back throughout. As such, Jabouin is the pick.
DeFreitas: I believe Loveland’s advantage in the grappling department will be the difference in the one. While I’m a huge fan of Jabouin’s striking abilities, his techniques leave him vulnerable to takedowns. I don’t necessarily believe Loveland will catch him in a submission, like Pablo Garza did, but I think he can keep the Canadian on his back long enough to earn a split decision in a fan-friendly, back-and-forth scrap.
Sariahmed: Jabouin’s move to bantamweight strikes me as being done with the wrong idea in mind. Moving down in weight seems to come with an idea of facing easier competition. However, if your game has holes in it, those same holes will be there regardless of whether you fight heavier or lighter. Jabouin isn’t too bad until you take him down -- and then it’s over. Loveland is a Team Quest fighter. He knows something about that wrestling thing. Give me Loveland by TKO in the second round.
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