Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Maia vs. LaFlare’

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WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHTS
Amanda Nunes (9-4, 2-1 UFC) vs. Shayna Baszler (15-9, 0-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Women’s MMA pioneer Baszler gets what looks like one last shot at the highest level of competition against Nunes. Baszler is 1-3 in her last four, with consecutive losses to Bethe Correia and Alexis Davis in her most recent outings. Nunes beat Sheila Gaff and Germaine de Randamie to open her UFC campaign but was knocked out by Cat Zingano in September.

Baszler is highly skilled but lacks the athleticism and physicality of the new generation of female fighters. One of the rare few catch wrestlers competing in MMA, Baszler is at her best in the clinch and on the ground. She hits slick trips and throws, has strong control and throws a steady stream of hard knees at close range, and she sets up most of her shot takedowns from the clinch, as well. From top position, Baszler works constant pressure and solid ground strikes while she looks to pass to dominant positions and work a submission, but she is also hard to deal with in transition, with an array of leg locks and sweeps. Her guard is active and very good but not exceptionally dangerous. At range, she is willing to bite down on her mouth guard and engage with hard punches and the occasional kick on her way into the clinch, but she is relatively slow and lacks power.

Nunes is essentially Baszler’s polar opposite, a physical specimen with great explosiveness and power but relatively limited but improving skills. A striker by trade, Nunes leaps in with powerful punching combinations and vicious kicks to the legs and body, all of which are capable of ending the fight at any time. She is not a terribly technical clinch fighter, but she is very strong and throws powerful knees at close range. While Nunes could stand to improve her defensive wrestling skills, she hits nice takedowns of her own from the clinch and on shots; and from top position, she shows brutal ground striking and great posture. Cardio and defense are not Nunes’ strong suits, however, and she has progressively less to offer as the fight goes on.

THE PICK: Baszler’s time is past, and fighters like Nunes -- athletic, quick, and powerful -- are the wave of the future. That is exactly the dynamic we will see play out in this fight. If Baszler can drag Nunes into the later rounds, she has a good shot at locking up a submission, but in the early going, the American is in enormous trouble. I expect the Brazilian to connect with a big punch or kick in the first round. The pick is Nunes by knockout in the first.

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