UFC Fight Night 38 Preview

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Welterweights

Gunnar Nelson (11-0-1, 2-0 UFC) vs. Omari Akhmedov (12-1, 1-0 UFC)

The Matchup: One of the promotion’s more highly touted prospects, Nelson has been on hiatus for more than a year after a knee injury forced him to withdraw form a proposed UFC 160 bout with Mike Pyle. The Icelander has been impressive in two Octagon appearances, blending superb grappling with unorthodox striking in scoring victories over DaMarques Johnson and Jorge Santiago.

A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Renzo Gracie, Nelson showcased his talent on the mat by passing guard and mounting Santiago, who is a black belt himself. Nelson has a karate background, as well, and his ability to rely on quickness and footwork while constantly switching stances often keeps opponents guessing. That, in turn, also allows him to set up takedowns because of the unpredictable nature of his attacks.

Akhmedov, meanwhile, is not as polished as his adversary, but he displayed dangerous power in his hands in his UFC debut against Thiago de Oliveira Perpetuo, as he countered his Brazilian foe with a two-punch combination. On the feet, the Dagestani relies primarily on power punches to the head and leg kicks, but his defense and footwork can be lacking; Perpetuo had him wobbled on two separate occasions. The sambo practitioner also has a strong submission grip for chokes, but his takedown defense has room for improvement. That could be a problem against Nelson, who advances position effortlessly on the mat. Despite being somewhat undersized for a welterweight, the 25-year-old “Gunni” is still adept at getting takedowns, in part because he can get opponents to chase him in exchanges.

While he does not throw in combination frequently, Nelson is accurate, commits to his punches and will throw kicks at various levels. The karate style will lead to plenty of Lyoto Machida comparisons, but Nelson is more hittable than the middleweight ace, in part because he keeps his hands low and will sometimes get trapped against the cage. Nelson has shown a solid chin thus far and usually knows when to move out of danger, but one lapse could prove disastrous against Akhmedov.

The Pick: Nelson should not have too much of a problem getting takedowns, and even if he does, he is more polished on the feet than Akhmedov. Barring a homerun KO, Nelson wins via submission or decision.

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