Light Heavyweights
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (23-8, +125) vs. Ryan Spann (15-5, -145): It feels like Nogueira has been on the verge of retirement for a few years now, but he is still getting after it. Even when Nogueira got a win over Rashad Evans in 2013 to give his career new life, “Minotouro” was already in the throes of late-career inactivity; that fight came over a year after a win against Tito Ortiz, and it would be nearly a year and a half before Nogueira returned to get knocked out by Anthony Johnson. Nogueira still has some veteran savvy and can outbox opponents in this flawed division, but all the inactivity means every loss completely stalls whatever momentum he has left in his career, to the point that he is now firmly in a gatekeeper role. Nogueira held that gate shut in outstanding fashion with a stunning knockout of Sam Alvey in September and returns a relatively quick eight months later to take on Spann. While not an A-level prospect, Spann has done a solid job of rebounding from a 2017 loss to Karl Roberson on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, winning his last five fights in a variety of ways. Nogueira could still take this. Alvey let the Brazilian veteran into the fight by fighting at a slow pace and Spann is not particularly aggressive, but few men are as committed to inaction as “Smilin’ Sam,” and there figures to be at least one point over 15 minutes where Spann presses the action and can find Nogueira’s suspect chin. The pick is Spann via second-round stoppage.Advertisement
Lightweights
Thiago Moises (11-3, -140) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (17-6, +120): Moises secured his UFC contract after a quick finish on DWTNCS Brazil, which was a bit of false advertising that served its purpose. Moises is much more the type of fighter who slowly breaks down his opponents, but he had been UFC-ready for a good while. Unfortunately, his debut came against Beneil Dariush, who is a better fighter in the same mold and managed to grind out a decision. Moises now looks to get into the win column against Holobaugh, who has had a rough go of things. Holobaugh is a solid fighter and willing to have a fun brawl every time out, but he has faced a tough slate of prospects and has yet to get a UFC win. Like Dariush, Moises runs the risk of getting knocked out early, particularly since Holobaugh is large and aggressive, but assuming he survives the early going, he should be able to take advantage of Holobaugh’s suspect takedown defense and grind out a decision.Women’s Bantamweights
Irene Aldana (9-4, -280) vs. Bethe Correia (10-3-1, +240): It is easy to ridicule Correia -- between her delusion about her own skill and the fact that she might be the worst athlete on the UFC roster -- but she has actually done a solid job of becoming the best fighter possible, developing a well-rounded game while being tough as nails. There is even an argument that until Holly Holm, Correia might have even approached Ronda Rousey with the smartest game plan to date, which, of course, did not work since she was a former accountant facing an Olympic-level athlete. At any rate, Correia returns after a two-year layoff -- she was last seen taunting Holm and getting kicked in the head, which is about what you would expect for Correia -- for what should be a fun brawl against Irene Aldana. The Lobo Gym export was expected to be a future contender, and the bantamweight division is thin enough where that still might be the case, but Aldana has her own athletic ceiling; and her issues against pressure have made her a plodding, one-dimensional boxer against better competition. Correia might be able to give Aldana some problems through sheer relentlessness and a willingness to scrap, but this is another fight where athleticism is going to hurt the Brazilian, as Aldana should still be able to beat Correia to the punch and land the harder shots. In a dark horse for “Fight of the Night” honors, the pick is Aldana via decision.Lightweights
B.J. Penn (16-13-2, +450) vs. Clay Guida (34-18, -600): It is unclear at this point what is more damning about the back half of Penn’s career -- that his last win was in 2010, or that it came against Matt Hughes. Penn actually still looks decent technically at moments in later years, but at this point, he is basically a husk of a fighter. He looks frail, his athleticism is mostly gone and he only has about a round of fighting left in him. On the plus side, if anyone is capable of diving immediately into a guillotine choke, it is Guida. However, it has only been a year and a half since Guida blew the doors off of Joe Lauzon, and Penn is way more washed up than Lauzon at this point. The pick is Guida via first-round knockout.Next Fights » UFC Fight Pass Prelims
Related Articles
