Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Maia vs. LaFlare’

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FEATHERWEIGHTS
Godofredo Castro (11-3, 3-3 UFC) vs. Andre Fili (14-2, 2-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: An interesting featherweight scrap kicks off the main card. “Pepey” Castro was the runner-up on the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” and looked to be on the way out with a 1-3 record in his first four bouts in the promotion, but he has bounced back with two straight wins. Fili, a product of Team Alpha Male, has sandwiched wins over Felipe Arantes and Jeremy Larsen around a loss to rising star Max Holloway.

Fili is a tremendously dynamic offensive fighter who could stand to work on his defense. He is a quick-paced and pathologically aggressive striker who whirls slick punch-kick combinations at range, and he packs real power in his shots. He is far too hittable, though, and leaves gaps in his defense when he flurries. The clinch is another strong point, and Fili throws vicious knees and elbows in extended sequences and especially on the breaks. He shoots a technical, driving double-leg, especially as a counter to his opponent’s forward movement, but struggles to defend takedowns and relies too much on his ability to scramble to get out of danger on the mat. That willingness to transition is both a positive and a negative: It has gotten him caught in submissions and left him trapped on the bottom, but on the whole, he picks his spots well, is difficult to hold down and can find guillotines and sweeps with consistency.

“Pepey” is another talented offensive fighter for whom defense is essentially an afterthought. The Brazilian is flashy and potent at range, with a rangy jab and preference for spinning kicks and flying knees, but he lacks much in the way of head movement, parries or combination striking. Frankly speaking, he is a bad wrestler who shoots from too far away and lacks much technical knowledge of how to finish his takedowns, but he benefits from the fact that his guard is dangerous enough that most opponents do not want to be on the ground with him. On his back, Castro is a killer, with an exceptionally quick and slick triangle-armbar-sweep series, and he will pull guard if his opponent is not inclined to take him down.

THE PICK: Unless Castro has made massive improvements to his striking game, this should be Fili’s fight to lose. I expect the American to wade through Castro’s kicking range, take him apart with punch-kick combinations in the pocket and avoid the Brazilian’s dangerous guard. The pick is Fili by knockout in the second round.

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