Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Poirier vs. Johnson’

Lightweights

Chris Wade (11-2) vs. Islam Makhachev (18-3-1)

THE MATCHUP: Wade is sort of the prototypical American all-rounder. He strikes fairly well, moving comfortably out of both stances, and surprises opponents with well-timed takedowns or counters to well-timed takedowns. He is more than anything a transitional specialist, skilled at changing phases and ranges and finding openings in the spaces between each.

The drawback of such a style is that the individual phases suffer. Wade has succeeded in the UFC when he has been able to impose his will. So long as he has the opponent reacting, he can dictate the rhythm and change tactics at will. In his most recent fight, however, Wade repeatedly found himself stuck. Rustam Khabilov kept him at striking range and, aside from a flush head kick landed by Wade in round two, nullified him. Even after that kick, Wade jumped into Khabilov’s guard, expecting a scramble. Instead, Khabilov threw his legs up. Several submission attempts later, Khabilov had recovered and Wade had scored no further damage; and whenever Khabilov got in on Wade’s hips, his superior wrestling made Wade look like a novice.

Makhachev is another transitional specialist but a more skilled one. Wade’s combat background was in Division III and junior college wrestling, but Makhachev is a literal master of combat sambo, having won the world and European championships, as well as four Russian championships. Combat sambo is an ideal background for a mixed martial artist because, though its competitors generally specialize in wrestling and submission skills, they are forced to contend with all aspects of fighting to succeed. In other words, combat sambo is essentially amateur MMA, and Makhachev has an extensive background.

Thus, Makhachev’s chances of dictating the exchanges are simply better than Wade’s. He will attempt to fight the same fight as his opponent, but he will do it better. Makhachev will strike his way smoothly into a gapless chain of takedown attempts before sliding onto Wade’s back in the scramble. Wade looks a little tense whenever he lacks the initiative.

THE ODDS: Makhachev (-115), Wade (-105)

THE PICK: Basically, this is a fight of feelings. Fighting in transition has very little to do with thinking and a great deal to do with feel. Building up that feel takes smart training and years of experience. Not only does Makhachev have more specific experience than Wade, but he is trained by Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, the father and trainer of the lightweight division’s top contender. When a feeling fighter like Wade is taken out of his game, he is forced to think; thinking breeds hesitation, and hesitation breeds mistakes. Expect Makhachev to capitalize on one of those mistakes and get the win. The pick is Makhachev by second-round submission.

Last Fights » The Prelims