Preview: UFC on ESPN 28 ‘Hall vs. Strickland’

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Welterweights

NR | Bryan Barberena (15-7, 6-5 UFC) vs. NR | Jason Witt (18-7, 1-2 UFC)

ODDS: Barberena (-260), Witt (+220)

Barberena’s breakout 2016 campaign was a nice story as it happened. After an unspectacular start to his UFC career, “Bam Bam” managed to hand Sage Northcutt and Warlley Alves their first career losses, earning a reputation as a prospect killer in the process. Barberena hit a wall shortly thereafter in terms of his record, but he still carved out a niche as an exciting addition to any card thanks to his ability to keep charging through damage to try and press his offense. Barberena has even made some technical improvements along the way, but unfortunately, his body seems to be betraying him when he should be hitting his career-best form. After kicking off 2019 with a “Fight of the Year” contender against Vicente Luque, Barberena dropped his second straight fight against Randy Brown and then spent over a year on the shelf due to major back surgery. Barberena scored a win over Anthony Ivy in his comeback in September but was quickly on the shelf again, this time needing emergency surgery due to internal bleeding in his abdomen. For the second straight fight, Barberena basically needs to prove he has overcome a career-threatening injury, which is the major drama for his fight against Witt. It is always nice to see a longtime road warrior like Witt earn a shot after a long career of work, but his UFC career to date has been a mixed bag.

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Witt’s style is fairly simple and built around straightforward pressure and wrestling, but there are some red flags at this level. He is not particularly quick, and his losses to Takashi Sato and Matthew Semelsberger were knockouts that lasted a combined 64 seconds. Still, Witt’s victory over Cole Williams showed how powerful he can look when everything is going well; if Barberena does not knock out Witt quickly, this could be a closer fight than expected. While Barberena handily beat Ivy, it was a bit of a slog, and there could be a lot of parity in a total grind if he is even further diminished after his latest injury. Still, Witt’s usual approach has never been the path to beating Barberena, and it is hard to bet on “Bam Bam” falling off until it has actually started to happen. The pick is Barberena via decision.

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