Preview: UFC Fight Night 125 ‘Machida vs. Anders’

Welterweight

Tim Means (27-9-1) vs. Sergio Moraes (12-3-1)

ODDS: Means (-220), Moraes (+180).

ANALYSIS: This really seems like a boom-or-bust bout for Means. In Moraes, he faces a true world-class grappler who could exploit his ho-hum submission defense in a heartbeat. At the same time, the 35-year-old Moraes has become increasingly enamored with his developing striking, and his overall performance has suffered, even during a seven-fight unbeaten streak in the UFC. How did that streak end? Kamaru Usman punched out a charging Moraes so badly that the Brazilian did a front somersault. The ideal strategy for Moraes is to stall out Means early and then look to impose some clinch grappling. However, Means is a unique specimen as a 6-foot-2 welterweight who also excels in the clinch, so Moraes must still be careful in those situations. The key is to lull Means into your fight. For whatever reason, “The Dirty Bird” seems to excel when he quickly figures out how best to attack his opponent or makes some early read. From there, he decides if he wants to be an in-fighter or an out-fighter. Moraes’ passion to swing to his detriment and his subpar takedown game should help Means make up his mind early. Means by knockout or grimy decision is the call here.

Lightweight

Alan Patrick Silva Alves (14-1) vs. Damir Hadzovic (11-3)

ODDS: Alves (-230), Hadzovic (+190).

ANALYSIS: This a battle between dudes who got highlight reeled by Mairbek Taisumov. In all seriousness, it is one of the easier style matchups to size up on this card because both men have fairly consistent and patterned attacks. Alves is a big 5-foot-11 southpaw who has a solid outside kickboxing game from distance and not in the usual winging Brazilian muay Thai mode. He has nice power, to boot. However, he shoots seven takedowns per fight. Contrary to his standup style, he is more of a pure grinder on top, chipping away with short punches to set up passes. Meanwhile, Hadzovic is a pressure fighter that walks his man to the fence, lobs punch combinations and then tries to dive into close quarters with heavy knees. Just ask his last victim, Marcin Held, who shot face-first onto one. Hadzovic is not necessarily a technician on the feet, and the nature of his craving dirty boxing matches in tight helps his opponent in this case; while the “Bosnian Bomber” has big power, Alves is going to either try to work from range and potshot his slow-starting opponent early or run inside, where the Brazilian is liable to start shooting liberal amounts of takedowns. Even if he shoots a lot of unsuccessful takedowns, Alves is a more serious multi-tool threat and excels at managing the pace of his fights, just picking and choosing his spots to land or neutralize opponents. He rides that strategy to a unanimous decision over Hadzovic.

Bantamweight

Douglas Silva de Andrade (24-2) vs. Marlon Vera (10-4-1)

ODDS: Vera (-125), Andrade (+105)

ANALYSIS: This is a battle of enigmatic bantamweights. The 25-year-old Vera has improved massively since moving to the United States from Ecuador to join Colin Oyama and Co., but his sudden rise to consciousness is predicated on spoiling a faded Brad Pickett’s retirement in London in March and his sassy armbar on Brian Kelleher four months later. Meanwhile, de Andrade racked up a 22-0 record with one no-contest and 19 knockouts in his native Brazil, all while essentially training in his backyard with friends and not having a proper gym. That was before a spate of injuries. With that said, Vera showed in his recent loss to all-world puncher John Lineker that he is more than capable of taking heat from a big hitter. His major problem so far in the UFC has been dealing with superior wrestlers, and Andrade is a herky-jerky power striker who is unlikely to try to put Vera on the mat. Using his awkward rhythm and salvos of wild punches, kicks and spinning attacks may actually help Vera’s cause to get the overaggressive Brazilian on the mat and put his slick grappling to work. “Chito” Vera is the pick, with a definite possibility of a submission, especially if he rocks Andrade on the feet first, as Rob Font did.

Bantamweight

Iuri Alcantara (34-9) vs. Joe Soto (18-6)

ODDS: Soto (-120), Alcantara (+100)

ANALYSIS: Who can make the other guy flake out first? This is a showdown between talented, established but ultimately mercurial fighters who cannot be strategically relied upon. Alcantara is a long, spindly southpaw who is not a great striker per se but has more than enough pop to threaten you. He excels in sudden, explosive grappling transitions where he is deft at locking up submissions, most notably in his last win, a come-from-behind kneebar on Luke Sanders in March. However, the 37-year-old was getting creamed in that fight beforehand and then turned in two complete clunkers against Brian Kelleher and Alejandro Perez. After starting 0-3 in the UFC, Soto ripped off three wins in a row to right his ship, only to get tapped with a calf slicer in 30 seconds by Brett Johns despite being a skilled leg lock specialist under David Terrell. The stocky Soto is giving up three inches of height and six inches of reach to his opponent, which could prevent him from closing the distance easily on “Marajo” and getting him down. However, unless Soto walks into a massive haymaker or dives into a submission carelessly, his wrestling should allow him to keep Alcantara mostly on his back and pound away for a competitive decision win.

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