The Bottom Line: A Goosebumps Fight

Just had a really positive conversation with @Ufc. Sounds like there will be negotiations for my next fight at heavy weight. All good news, the weight gaining process begins.

— BONY (@JonnyBones) August 17, 2020

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It’s an uncertain time in the Ultimate Fighting Championship heavyweight and light heavyweight divisions. After years of dominance, Daniel Cormier announced his retirement. Even if he hasn’t fought for the last time, he clearly won’t be the regular presence in the coming years that he has been over the past decade. Anthony Johnson is reentering the UFC’s drug testing program with plans to return to action. Younger and less experienced heavyweights like Francis Ngannou, Curtis Blaydes and Jairzinho Rozenstruik have passed division stalwarts like Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem and Fabricio Werdum.

Most importantly amidst the turmoil is Jon Jones’ announcement that after dominating the 205-pound division since 2011, he will be vacating the UFC light heavyweight title and making a run at heavyweight. It’s a welcome decision; a rematch between Jones and Dominick Reyes would have been ideal, but there are so many fresh fights for him at heavyweight and it will be interesting to see if he can thrive in a new weight class. Of course, the immediate question this raises: Who will Jones fight next?

Jones was not shy in talking about the heavyweight title and one option would be an immediate title shot against Stipe Miocic. UFC President Dana White threw cold water on the idea after UFC 252 on Saturday, but he has been known to change his mind. Another option would be Cormier, Jones’ biggest career rival. The third of the most obvious options was the one discussed a couple months back, a superfight with heavyweight knockout artist Francis Ngannou, with the winner then taking on Miocic for the title. For a variety of reasons, the bout with Ngannou is the best choice for Jones’ next fight.

Let’s start with the most straightforward reason to book Jones-Ngannou: It’s the most compelling fight. Jones has fought Cormier twice already when both men were at their best. A third fight is still worth making, but it won’t tell us all that much about either man that we didn’t already know. The big question with Jones involves how he will do at heavyweight, and fighting his light heavyweight rival in a new weight class doesn’t tell us nearly as much on that front as fighting someone with much greater height and reach who has always fought at heavyweight. It’s more a sidebar to Jones’ new adventure than the beginning of it.

That brings us to Miocic. Some would complain about Jones getting an immediate title shot over Ngannou, but that’s really beside the point. If there was ever a fighter who deserved an immediate title shot after moving to a new weight class, it’s Jones. His resume alone is enough to warrant such a move. However, the hook of Jones winning a title in a second weight class isn’t that big of a deal. After that happened only twice in the first 22 years of the UFC, it has happened five times in the past four years. With Jones moving up to heavyweight, it’s mostly about the individual matchups; and that’s where Ngannou stands out.

Miocic is a great fighter with a diverse skill set. However, he has never truly captured the imagination of the broader MMA fan base. Between his soft-spoken, down-to-Earth personality and a fighting style that smartly targets the weaknesses of his opponents, he flies under the radar as much as a fighter of his ability can. By contrast, Ngannou is a human highlight reel. His last eight wins have taken less than 10 total minutes combined.

The intrigue behind skilled fighters moving up in weight class has always been how they will handle the size and power of a larger opponent, and Jones-Ngannou epitomizes that basic hook. Miocic definitively proved himself a better fighter the last time he fought Ngannou, but Ngannou is still the one you fantasize about standing in front of Jones when he steps into the heavyweight division for the first time. It’s a goosebumps fight, and those don’t come along that often.

Logistically, there’s a lot to say for Jones-Ngannou, as well. Miocic just got through a challenging title defense and isn’t likely to be ready to fight in the near future. He’s only fought five times in the last four years; if Miocic returned in January, it would be his quickest return to action since 2016. Cormier was also just in a rough fight, damaged his eye and announced his retirement. It’s unrealistic to expect him back in the near future. By contrast, Jones and Ngannou are rested and ready. They could fight in October or November with the winner ready to fight Miocic early in 2021.

If Jones-Ngannou is made, the winner fighting Miocic will be a massive fight either way. If Jones wins, he’s competing for the heavyweight title after taking out the top contender. If Ngannou wins, he will have scored victory in the highest-profile fight of his career and handed arguably the greatest fighter of all-time his only real loss. He will be a much bigger deal and the Miocic rematch will be much bigger than it would be if it took place right now. On the other hand, the winner of an Ngannou-Miocic rematch wouldn’t gain nearly so much in the public imagination, leaving a subsequent Jones fight at about the same level it would be taking place right now.

There is one formidable obstacle to Jones-Ngannou, and that’s that the UFC has been reluctant to up Jones’ pay for his heavyweight excursion. That is understandable to a point, since without fans, the increased revenue on the biggest pay-per-views go to ESPN. However, the UFC has been getting big fights done and Jones-Ngannou would drive interest in the sport. If the UFC is willing to open that pocketbook, that’s the fight it should pursue.