Lightweights
Tony Ferguson (23-3) vs. Anthony Pettis (21-7)Advertisement
Somehow, Ferguson remains the odd man out at lightweight, even as he rides a 10-fight winning streak. Ferguson’s UFC career got off to a slow start thanks to a broken arm, but once “El Cucuy” got some momentum, he never lost it. Not only did Ferguson win every time out, but his fearless, offense-heavy style also made him one of the most exciting fighters in the sport. Ferguson’s been hurt as much as anyone by Conor McGregor’s move to lightweight gumming up the works. He headed into 2016 assumed to be among the top contenders but instead wound up eternally getting matched with Khabib Nurmagomedov, only for one of the two to fall through. It looked like Ferguson-Nurmagomedov would finally happen at UFC 223 in April, but naturally, Ferguson suffered a major knee injury due to, of all things, tripping over a cord while doing PR work. The injury was expected to keep Ferguson out until sometime in 2019, but given that he’s a maniac, he is back only six months after getting hurt. While his inclusion on the card seems mostly to serve as insurance for the main event, he should not look past a solid challenge in former lightweight champ Pettis.
Pettis’ title loss to Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 185 looked to be when his career went off the rails. “Showtime” was a good-looking champion with an exciting fight style, and the UFC had put all its promotional weight behind him. Dos Anjos figured to be a journeyman opponent that Pettis could run through, but instead, the challenger took Pettis against the fence and put him through 25 minutes of hell, winning a one-sided decision. From there, the book was seemingly out on how to beat Pettis. Constant pressure allowed opponents to shut down Pettis’ flashy strikes, and the former champ was left to reinvent his game on the fly. A brief cut to featherweight went nowhere, and a November loss to Dustin Poirier signaled that Pettis’ durability and submission skills -- two pillars of his game -- might finally be abandoning him. There may yet be hope. Pettis responded to that loss with a dominant win over Michael Chiesa, mentally returning to his flashier style and eventually tapping the submission specialist in the second round. It’s enough of a glimmer that Pettis might be able to recapture his past success, and he gets a huge shot here to finally turn the corner.
MMA can be a funny sport. Mere months ago, few had faith in Pettis ever becoming a contender again, but now he has a shot to beat one of the best lightweights in the world. Again, the book is out that Pettis can be defeated by constant pressure, but Ferguson is not a guy who figures to exploit that. Instead, he’s a spiritual successor to the former champ -- despite somehow being older -- and focuses on an offense-heavy range-striking game, along with some slick submissions. Given that Ferguson has built upon what Pettis has done, it should be a simple breakdown, as Ferguson should be able to beat Pettis at his own game. However, there’s the huge X-factor of Ferguson’s injury. He’s returning about six months ahead of schedule, and while Ferguson’s a physical freak, his movement-heavy style could be diminished enough that Pettis can steal a win. If I was convinced that Pettis had recaptured his old magic, I might pick the upset, but watching his win over Chiesa, it looks a lot more like a still-diminished Pettis getting a good matchup rather than any sort of new beginning. With that said, the knee injury is the only major concern here, and while it’s a major one, I cannot trust Ferguson has slipped that much until I see it in the cage. The pick is Ferguson via decision.
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