Preview: UFC 256 Prelims

SIMPLY UNSTOPPABLE.

Never, ever go to the ground with @MackenzieDern

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— UFC (@ufc) September 20, 2020

Women’s Strawweights

#11 WSW | Mackenzie Dern (9-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. #13 WSW | Virna Jandiroba (16-1, 2-1 UFC)

ODDS: Dern (-185), Jandiroba (+160)

This is a superbly booked fight that could see these two either go strength versus strength or weakness versus weakness. Dern has been taught to grapple from the womb, and while she is the best pure submission artist among all the women in the UFC, everything else is a clear work in progress. Most grapplers need to add some wrestling to their game to set up those submission skills, and Dern is no exception. While she is a physical powerhouse—enough so that she infamously missed weight many times earlier in her career—that has not translated to much ability to overpower her opponents and get them to the mat. She has knockout power, but her striking game mostly consists of wild and looping strikes that her opponents can see coming from miles away. A loss in 2019 to Amanda Ribas should have served as a pivot point for Dern, as the Brazilian outclassed her on the feet and neutralized her grappling game to the point that some hard questions should have been asked. However, in her two fights since, Dern has had mostly the same difficulties with wrestling and striking, only to find that Hannah Cifers and Randa Markos were more than willing to play with fire and engage with her on the mat before getting tapped. It will be fascinating to see exactly what happens against Jandiroba and what approach she takes. Jandiroba also comes from a grappling background, and, as her quick win over Felice Herrig in August showed, she has developed the wrestling to set up the best parts of her game. Even though that is usually Jandiroba’s winning approach, it might be too risky to try here against a submission artist as accomplished as Dern. With that said, if Jandiroba does not decide to take the initiative and try to grind out a win on the mat, she is not a particularly great striker herself, and any attempts to open up on the feet give Dern an opening to either swing for the fences or take the action to the mat on her terms. Ribas showed an outline of how Dern can be beaten and outlasted, but it remains unclear if Jandiroba is a strong enough athlete to survive and turn things around in grappling exchanges. Jandiroba at least has some sort of process to her game, but it is up in the air as to whether or not she can thread the needle of effectively controlling the fight while avoiding the considerable danger that Dern brings to the table. The pick is Jandiroba via decision.

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