This is literally a fight for the record books: Miller builds on
his all-time lead by stepping into the Octagon for the 40th time,
and the winner will break a tie with Andrei
Arlovski and their opponent for the UFC’s all-time victory
record. Given the wear on his tires, Miller is still surprisingly
effective. There were some rough patches, including a stretch where
Miller was fighting with an undiagnosed case of Lyme disease, but
“A-10” has settled in as a dangerous fighter who can provide a
tough test for—or outright smoke—most lightweight prospects. If
there is an obvious decline for Miller, it is in terms of his gas
tank, which was never a strength even in his prime. Opponents who
can survive against the New Jersey native usually find their way to
a victory. However, in the early going, it is clearly a case of
opponents having to pick their poison. Miller’s 2020 campaign saw
him snag a quick armbar against reedy grappler Roosevelt
Roberts, and he went toe-to-toe with and scored second-round
knockouts of Erick
Gonzalez and Nikolas
Motta. Every once in a while, the UFC will throw Miller in
against one of his veteran peers for a fun scrap, which is the plan
here. With Bobby Green
out, Cerrone steps in for his 38th UFC fight—a number that will
only be behind Miller. Cerrone is clearly in a sharp decline, but
it is almost a miracle that his prime lasted for as long as it did.
Cerrone’s reckless lifestyle is well-documented, and he made his
name as a fan favorite by taking as many fights as possible on
relatively short turnarounds. That worked for Cerrone to a huge
extent. Beyond the notoriety, Cerrone’s busy schedule meant that
even after a setback he would typically be on a multi-fight winning
streak within a matter of months. Cerrone’s last hurrah as a
relevant fighter looks to be 2019. He kicked off the year with a
schooling of surging prospect Alexander
Hernandez and a main event win over Al Iaquinta,
but a loss to Tony
Ferguson has kicked off a six-fight winless streak for Cerrone,
with his last fight being a particularly worrying knockout loss to
Alex
Morono over a year ago. Cerrone has always been a notoriously
slow starter, but that issue has gotten worse than ever. Not only
is “Cowboy” more vulnerable in the early going, but he has had an
increasingly tougher time finding moments during which he can turn
his fights around. Cerrone has beaten Miller before—the two met in
a 2014 headliner that saw Miller suffer his first knockout loss—so
there is a chance he can turn back the clock, particularly if he
survives the early going. Still, this looks like a fight where
Miller can start a scrap and get his win back. The pick is Miller
via first-round knockout.
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