Preview: UFC 278 ‘Usman vs. Edwards 2’

Middleweights

#6 MW | Paulo Costa (13-2, 5-2 UFC) vs. Luke Rockhold (16-5, 6-4 UFC)

ODDS: Costa (-295), Rockhold (+245)

After a completely unmemorable stint on “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” in 2014, Costa entered the UFC as a top middleweight prospect in 2017. Somewhere in the interim, Costa had become a musclebound bully willing to march down any opponent, and “The Eraser” seemed shockingly committed to that idea, particularly through wins over Uriah Hall and Yoel Romero that made him a title contender. The Brazilian had little regard for the fact that he was facing some of the division’s most powerful hitters and just decided to meet the challenge head-on with a surprising amount of success. The Romero victory set Costa up for a shot at middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, and from there, he has essentially become a question mark. The build to the Adesanya fight could be best described as psychosexual, and apparently that—or a wine hangover, as Costa subsequently claims—led to the challenger appearing mentally broken once it was time to step into the cage. Rather than the non-stop aggression Costa had shown throughout his UFC career, he did not press much of anything and got picked apart before suffering a second-round knockout. The situation did not get much clearer for Costa afterwards, as he backed out of multiple fights before finally agreeing to face Marvin Vettori in October. Even that came with its own drama. It remains unclear if Costa attempted to even cut weight for the bout, resulting in the weight limit being moved up multiple times during fight week before finally settling in as a light heavyweight affair. Even with all that, the fight itself was somewhat promising for Costa, who did an impressive job of keeping pace with the Italian contender over five rounds. Costa seemed tired throughout the bout and did not look to be having a great time, but he kept stepping up as Vettori dragged him into a war, even though he had lost the decision by the end of the fight. Between everything, Costa probably still has a long road back to a title shot, and somehow, there are still less questions about him than his opponent here.

It has been a hard fall for Rockhold, whose title win over Chris Weidman in 2015 seemed to set him up as the future of the middleweight division. With a gigantic frame that gave him some powerful range striking to go along with an excellent grappling game, Rockhold looked to have the answer for anything that came his way, particularly in his first title defense against Michael Bisping. After all, it was a thrown-together fight and a rematch of a one-sided Rockhold win just 19 months earlier. Naturally, Bisping scored a first-round knockout, exposing Rockhold’s chin as a potentially fatal flaw and essentially sending the now-former champion’s career into a downward spiral that has yet to reverse itself. After a long layoff, Rockhold returned for a win over David Branch that was a mixed bag. He still looked shaky on the feet but also reaffirmed that he was a dominant force in close quarters, scoring a ground-and-pound stoppage. That just set Rockhold up for what was a cruel pairing against Romero both on paper and in practice; as expected, Rockhold found plenty of success picking Romero apart from range, but had little answer when the Cuban sprang into action for the knockout shot, which came in horrifically brutal fashion in the third round. After another long layoff and multiple injuries, Rockhold returned in 2019 for a campaign at light heavyweight that lasted all of one fight. Jan Blachowicz was another rough matchup, but a second-round knockout affirmed that Rockhold’s durability probably would not have held up in the division for the long haul. From there came a retirement that did not stick. However, even this latest return has been a bit of an adventure, with Rockhold backing out of a slated pairing with Sean Strickland in 2021 due to a herniated disc. It is difficult to have much faith in either man at this point, but this does clearly seem like Costa’s fight to lose, if only because of Rockhold’s durability issues, which, if anything, have likely only been compounded by age and injuries in the three years since his last fight. Costa is a solid grappler and a physical force, so Rockhold’s typical safety valve of his wrestling and grappling does not seem like a sure thing. Costa likely only has to find a few hard punches to end this, and 15 minutes seems like more than enough time. The pick is Costa via second-round knockout.

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Usman vs. Edwards
Costa vs. Rockhold
Dvalishvili vs. Aldo
Romanov vs. Tybura
Pedro vs. Hunsucker
The Prelims