Preview: UFC 279 ‘Chimaev vs. Diaz’

Welterweights

#14 WW | Jingliang Li (19-7, 11-5 UFC) vs. #11 LW | Tony Ferguson (25-7, 15-5 UFC)

ODDS: Li (-300), Ferguson (+250)

This late addition to the card came completely out of left field, as we are officially at the weight-class-change part of Ferguson’s attempts to regain any of his past momentum. After winning season 13 of “The Ultimate Fighter” back in 2011, Ferguson’s UFC career got off to a bit of a slow start. He suffered his first loss within a year and subsequently spent over a year out of action thanks to a broken arm suffered in that fight. Upon his 2013 return, it was off to the races. Ferguson quickly made himself known as a potential title contender and one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC’s deepest division, eventually stringing together 12 straight wins. However, when it came to the title picture, “El Cucuy” somehow always found himself on the outside looking in, and by the time Ferguson was viably in the championship equation, the whims of Conor McGregor had firmly gummed up the works. A potential pairing against Khabib Nurmagomedov is the most cursed matchup in UFC history. The promotion tried to pit the two against each other at least six separate times, each falling through due to some manner of major issue or injury on either side. The last attempt fell apart due to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, and with Nurmagomedov stuck in Russia, Ferguson kicked off the UFC’s post-layoff schedule with an interim title fight against Justin Gaethje. It resulted in a fifth-round stoppage loss after an extended beating that officially signaled the end of Ferguson’s prime. The fall afterwards was stark—Ferguson essentially got nothing done in subsequent losses to Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush—though a May defeat to Michael Chandler did mix both some cruelty and hope. Ferguson had his strongest start in years, only for Chandler to annihilate him with a front kick almost immediately upon the start of the second round. Ferguson is now scrambling for answers, and the latest change is a move up to welterweight. Given the late-notice nature of the booking, it is unclear if this is a permanent idea, but the UFC still has not done Ferguson any favors by matching him against Li.

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Li is essentially the pioneer of Chinese mixed martial arts at the UFC level. The country is now well-established on the roster, but the promotion’s first attempt to break into the market, circa 2014, did not accomplish much in finding talent, save for “The Leech.” Even then, it took Li some impressive adaptation to find some success. Initially living up to his nickname as a grinder, Li quickly realized he did not have the wrestling chops to compete at the UFC level and developed a more consistent striking attack. Li has hit a clear ceiling—mostly against the larger welterweights he has faced, such as Neil Magny and Khamzat Chimaev—but otherwise, he has proven to be an adept knockout artist who can find an opening over time despite his propensity for some terribly slow starts. There are some opportunities for Ferguson to recapture some of his old magic. Li does not figure to pursue the wrestling that has neutralized Ferguson in recent fights; and those slow starts from Li give Ferguson a chance to settle into a groove early on, maybe even by pursuing some wrestling of his own. However, at this point, the surest bet is that Li will be able to end this fight within 15 minutes, given how much Ferguson’s durability has degraded, along with the step up in weight. The pick is Li via second-round knockout.

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Chimaev vs. Diaz
Li vs. Ferguson
Holland vs. Rodriguez
Aldana vs. Chiasson
Cutelaba vs. Walker
The Prelims