Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Mir vs. Duffee’

---

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Josh Thomson (20-7, 1-2 UFC) vs. Tony Ferguson (18-3, 8-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Another old school-versus-new school matchup graces the card, as former Strikeforce champion Thomson takes on “The Ultimate Fighter 13” winner Ferguson in an outstanding lightweight bout. Thomson’s UFC career has been a touch underwhelming; while it started strong with a head-kick knockout of Nate Diaz, consecutive contentious losses to Benson Henderson and Bobby Green have left him in danger of irrelevance. Ferguson’s only UFC loss came against Michael Johnson. Since then he has won five straight, the most recent a submission of Gleison Tibau in February.

Thomson is extraordinarily well-rounded, with a firm grasp of every facet of the game. His striking arsenal is crisp and varied, with nice counter punches in the pocket when pressured, a steady diet of low kicks and an outstanding ability to disguise his preferred high kicks by flashing punches to obscure his opponent’s field of vision and draw his hands out of position. The problem with this is a distinct lack of offensive output: Thomson will often give away rounds on volume alone while feinting and looking for the perfect shot. He is a perfectly competent wrestler, with a nice double-leg and a sneaky step-in trip that he loves to employ, and he is difficult to take down himself. On the mat, Thomson’s real strength lies in finding the back in scrambles, and he also controls well from top position.

Ferguson is dangerous everywhere. A quick, rangy athlete who works at an excellent pace, he packs a potent striking arsenal on the feet, working behind a long jab, hard round kicks at all levels and crisp combinations of power punches. Slick pivots and clean angles are the order of the day, and while he can be tagged on the counter after he throws, in general, his head movement and command of space make him difficult to hit. A former Division II national champion, Ferguson is an excellent wrestler. While he rarely shoots for takedowns of his own, he is very difficult to take down, except when his kicks are caught, and he fights off his opponents’ shots by means of a lightning-quick sprawl and a gorgeous front headlock series. His brabo, guillotine and anaconda chokes are lethal, and he has a fast move to the back.

BETTING ODDS: Ferguson (-195), Thomson (+155)

THE PICK: Ferguson is bigger, stronger, works at a quicker pace, has better finishing ability and has vastly less wear and tear on his body than the experienced Thomson. That is not to say that the veteran is without paths to victory, especially if he can find his rhythm on the feet or find a way to get to Ferguson’s back, but that is a tall order. The pick is Ferguson by decision, though a finish would not be surprising.

Next Fight » Holly Holm vs. Marion Reneau