Preview: UFC on ABC 3 ‘Ortega vs. Rodriguez’

Women’s Strawweights

#11 WSW | Amanda Lemos (11-2-1, 5-2 UFC) vs. #10 WSW | Michelle Waterson (18-9, 6-5 UFC)

ODDS: Lemos (-315), Waterson (+260)

It has been a good while since Waterson made her way to the Octagon, and it will be interesting to see how “The Karate Hottie” looks at this point in her career. Waterson’s UFC success was not necessarily a given upon her promotional debut in 2015. Given the opportunity, the UFC figured to firmly be in the Waterson business, but most of her success had come down at atomweight, raising some concern as to how she would do against stronger athletes up at 115 pounds. Waterson has not gotten over the hump to title contention, but otherwise, things have gone quite well. Despite her diminutive size, Waterson is a surprisingly strong and effective wrestler, and she has also done a much better job of effectively leveraging her speed into a more effective range striking approach. There are times when things go completely south—Waterson can often get stuck on either a striking-heavy or wrestling-heavy approach even beyond the point where it is clear she has the wrong idea—but that has typically been against the elite of the division. Waterson has been out of action since losing a May 2021 headliner against Marina Rodriguez and has apparently been dealing with some career-threatening injuries in the interim, so it will be fascinating to see what form she shows up in, particularly since the UFC handed her a tough matchup against Lemos.

While Waterson was well-known upon her UFC debut, the complete opposite was true of Lemos, who had an unmemorable start to her UFC career. “Amandinha” came to the UFC in 2017 as a bantamweight, and after losing a prelim fight to Leslie Smith, she was taken out of action for two years due to a drug suspension. That is a situation where the UFC has often cut fighters in the past, but Lemos avoided the axe and returned in 2019 looking like a completely different fighter, having cut down to strawweight and apparently maintaining all of her strength in her new weight class. Lemos went from afterthought to complete powerhouse, stringing together a five-fight winning streak that was dominant at times. Even beyond her three first-round finishes, Lemos showed an ability to bully around her opponents, along with staging an impressive comeback and finding a second wind against Angela Hill. That Hill victory set up a main event spot against Jessica Andrade in April, a lot of which went well for Lemos while it lasted. However, at about the three-minute mark, Andrade was surprisingly able to assert herself and finish the fight with a standing arm-triangle choke. Each woman could get a lot done in this one. While Lemos is the much more intimidating physical force and could cause plenty of damage, she is also typically a slow and stalking fighter, which could make Waterson’s movement-heavy style the perfect approach to outmaneuver and outpoint the Brazilian over 15 minutes. The bet is that Lemos can find enough big moments and maintain her cardio enough to win two rounds—especially since her moments of offense have a chance to send Waterson flying—but this could be a fascinating chess match. The pick is Lemos via decision.

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Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Lemos vs. Waterson
Salikhov vs. Li
Mudaerji vs. Schnell
Burgos vs. Jourdain
Tate vs. Murphy
The Prelims