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Bantamweights

Urijah Faber (29-6, 5-2 UFC) vs. Michael McDonald (16-2, 5-1 UFC)

The Matchup: Since 2010, Faber has lost to just three men: Jose Aldo, Dominick Cruz and Renan Barao. What it means is that anyone who beats “The California Kid” is more than likely championship material, as he has handily dispatched plenty of high-level bantamweights in non-title bouts.

While the 22-year-old McDonald has already fought for a championship -- he gave Barao a scare early before losing via fourth-round submission in February -- he did so in the relative obscurity of Fuel TV. A win over Faber in the place where “The California Kid” headlined so many cards as World Extreme Cagefighting’s top draw would signal a changing of the guard. That McDonald has done so much already is impressive, but his youth means that the best could be yet to come.

“Mayday” showcased a versatile skill set at UFC Fight Night 26. He had durable veteran Brad Pickett reeling with a flurry of power punches in round one but was unable to finish. After being taken down in the second frame, McDonald transitioned from a triangle armbar to a triangle choke to get the submission victory. Faber appeared on the same card, and after weathering an early scare from Iuri Alcantara, rallied to control the majority of their bout with takedowns and ground-and-pound.

McDonald’s ability to threaten with submissions from his back is encouraging, even if Pickett is not on Faber’s level when it comes to wrestling. McDonald has not spent much time on his back thus far in his UFC career, but that might change against Faber, who is explosive when it comes to moving into takedown range. However, Faber might not have a significant athletic advantage, if any, in this matchup. Now 34 years old, Faber is past the age when most fighters are in their athletic prime, even if it has not shown in many of his fights. McDonald will provide a significant test due to his ability to overwhelm opponents with his hand speed and power.

This will be an interesting matchup on the feet, as neither McDonald nor Faber are exceptional volume punchers. While his knockout power is significant, McDonald relies on counterpunching and can be made to look tentative by intelligent feints and movement. Over the years, Faber has become increasingly fond of his right hand. He has used it to stun many an adversary, but his tendency to use it almost exclusively while rushing in could leave him susceptible to the counters McDonald favors.

Fortunately for Faber, McDonald does not have a significant reach advantage or a consistent jab, so he will not be able to pick apart the Team Alpha Male patriarch at range. This could lead to some serious firefights in close quarters, with the fighter who lands first setting the tone for the entire bout. McDonald has shown good timing on takedowns and an aggressive ground game in the past, but Faber’s pace in this area will be difficult to match. The former WEC titlist has dangerous chokes, and his strength and scrambling ability often allow him to achieve advantageous positions. The greatest danger for Faber here is navigating the striking exchanges.

The Pick: McDonald could rock Faber early to get the finish or he could find himself worn down by his opponent’s wrestling in a longer bout. The X-factor is the younger fighter’s capacity for improvement. Consider this a nod toward potential. McDonald takes this by KO or TKO in round two.

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