Preview: UFC 303 ‘Pereira vs. Prochazka 2’

Light Heavyweights

#10 MW | Roman Dolidze (12-3, 6-3 UFC) vs. #10 LHW | Anthony Smith (38-19, 13-9 UFC)

ODDS: Dolidze (-142), Smith (+120)

Constant availability is at a premium in the 2024 version of the UFC, so as long as Smith keeps winning, good things should keep happening for “Lionheart.” A solid if unspectacular middleweight for most of his professional career, Smith moved up to light heavyweight in 2018 and shot up the ladder immediately, in part thanks to his willingness to keep stepping in and taking fights. He finished Rashad Evans, Mauricio Rua and Volkan Oezdemir within a span of about five months, heading into 2019 as Jon Jones’ top contender for the belt at 205 pounds. After an unsuccessful title challenge, Smith has stuck around somewhere between the Top 5 and Top 10 of the UFC’s light heavyweight ranks, owing to a mentality that has a lot of bend but little in terms of break. Smith’s experience means he can hold his own just about anywhere, but he fights with a ton of emotion, so things tends to look dire up until the point that he can steel himself and stage an anger-fueled comeback. There are still one-sided fights for Smith, however, as elite-level opponents can usually lean on one or two skills to freeze him out of a fight. Then there are bouts like his May win over a raw prospect in Vitor Petrino, who immediately charged into a Smith guillotine choke. That left Smith available to step in for a fight that has seen a ton of changes. He replaces Jamahal Hill, who was set to face Carlos Ulberg, who was replacing Khalil Rountree. With Ulberg now out, Dolidze moves back up from middleweight on about two weeks’ notice.

Dolidze kicked off his UFC career with two wins at light heavyweight back in 2020, but it was unclear how the Georgian’s style would work going forward. He obviously had plenty of horsepower but fought with an aimless approach that would mostly just pull low-percentage techniques out of mid-air until something connected for a finish. Despite his success at 205 pounds, Dolidze moved down to middleweight and briefly reinvented himself as a low-output grinder before settling into his previous groove. Dolidze still doesn’t present much pace, but nearly everything he does has some level of danger. That marched Dolidze into the middleweight Top 10 with a surprising lack of difficulty, but he has been somewhat aimless since a win over Jack Hermansson to cap off 2022. Injuries to opponents have left him with long stretches in between fights, and he has now suffered two straight losses after Marvin Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov were able to match his physicality. Smith’s durability isn’t elite, so there’s a chance for Dolidze to end this with one risky maneuver. However, Smith is another fighter who can match Dolidze in size and power while having a much more functional game. The pick is Smith via decision.

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Pereira vs. Prochazka
Lopes vs. Ortega
Dolidze vs. Smith
Bueno Silva vs. Chiasson
Garry vs. Page
The Prelims