Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson’

Lightweights

Diego Sanchez (26-9) vs. Marcin Held (22-4)

THE MATCHUP: Sanchez has been losing athleticism, creativity and offensive power. The last few years of his career have been disappointing, and the calls for retirement have been many. However, he always had one thing: his toughness. Now that Joe Lauzon has handed him the first knockout loss of his career -- and a devastating one at that -- Sanchez may not even have that. The mental toughness is there, no question. Few fighters are more fearless or determined than Sanchez to keep on pushing, but at a certain point, the body simply cannot do what the mind wants it to.

So now Sanchez is being slotted into the role of “name win.” He has earned his stripes and still draws eyeballs, but increasingly, his never-say-die attitude only makes him ripe pickings for up-and-comers, hungry for bankable wins on their records. Held is such a fighter. Held has been fighting for over eight years, but at just 24 years old, he still has time to improve; and judging by his recent performances, he seems determined to do so.

Held is a submission specialist. With 12 submissions to his credit, he has proven himself to be a real threat on the ground, particularly with leg locks, though Held is not as one-dimensional as other leg lock specialists like Rousimar Palhares and Ian Entwistle. Held is more than capable of snagging armbars, triangles and rear-naked chokes. Held uses his leg locks to improve position, as well, and tends not to spend too much time being controlled by his opponents. His striking is awkward at best but effective nonetheless. Held has a solid 1-2 and a few dazzling kicks up his sleeve.

Sanchez is still virtually immune to submissions, and Held is unlikely to knock him out. His own offense, however, is underwhelming. Sanchez is a constant aggressor but fairly robotic and artless with his striking. His wrestling is credible but not overwhelming, and Sanchez still struggles to pursue takedowns as often as he should. Worst of all, Sanchez is hittable in the extreme. Durability has been his saving grace, but that attribute now stands in doubt, and Held will have the opportunity to score regardless.

THE ODDS: Held (-260), Sanchez (+215)

THE PICK: Held is perhaps not the ideal fighter to beat Sanchez, but there is no reason to pick “The Nightmare” here. His heart is unquestionable, and he will almost certainly not fall prey to Held’s submission skills. Nonetheless, Sanchez cannot strike consistently enough to hurt Held, who has never been knocked out, and he will not be able to surprise the young grappler on the ground. Sanchez’s only chance is that Held exhausts himself by fighting too aggressively too early -- something he has done numerous times in the past. Even then, can Sanchez win a convincing enough third round to take the fight? I say no. The pick is Held by unanimous decision.

Next Fight » Lamas vs. Oliveira