Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Swanson vs. Lobov’

Light Heavyweights

Ovince St. Preux (19-10) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (14-3-1)

THE MATCHUP: At one point, St. Preux’s loss to Jimi Manuwa at UFC 204 could have been written off as a slow night with a quick end for the top 10 mainstay, but no more. In February, St. Preux was bested by promotional newcomer Volkan Oezdemir; and while Oezdemir fought a good fight, St. Preux looked absolutely flat for the second outing in a row. Now, we must question how much the Knoxville knockout artist has left in the tank. At 34 years old, St. Preux is not exactly an anomaly in the aging light heavyweight division, but he has always been a fighter who relies heavily on his athletic talents. Like other such fighters, the inevitable decline can be sudden and surprising. As soon as the body slows down, the fighting style of the dynamic athlete falls apart.

We might also point to St. Preux’s loss to Jon Jones as a tipping point for the 205-pound contender. Perhaps St. Preux, who turned in a credible performance against the greatest light heavyweight ever, realized how much farther he would have to go to reach the top of the mountain. Despite his best efforts, Jones shut him out. As a man who has rarely ventured beyond his small camp in Tennessee -- a man who is certainly used to being the biggest fish in his small pond of a gym -- that loss might have done him in. Whatever the reason, St. Preux has looked sluggish in his last two fights. Struggling to find the happy medium between fighting patiently and pulling the trigger, he has looked markedly slower than before and flagged badly heading into the second round.

Does any of this mean that a loss to de Lima is a foregone conclusion? No. St. Preux remains an explosive puncher who, despite never really developing a technical ground game, has at times looked like a natural scrambler. De Lima is in many ways similar to Manuwa. He is a powerhouse kickboxer with a brutal kicking game and heavy hands. De Lima can be taken down, and two of his four losses have come via submission. Despite this, de Lima is a capable grappler, with two arm-triangle finishes of his own. The problem for de Lima seems to be that he either panics or rushes on the ground rather than patiently working to improve position. Fortunately for him, St. Preux has never been much of a submission threat. In fact, since 2014 St. Preux has lost every fight in which he scored a takedown. It seems that a willingness to grapple rarely works out well for either man.

That brings us to the bemusing X-factor in this fight. De Lima has historically been a one-round fighter. So while St. Preux is slowing down and struggling in longer fights these days, de Lima has experienced the same problem throughout his career. Momentum matters, however. St. Preux has now slowed down badly in two consecutive performances; and whereas de Lima’s last fight ended, as most of his fights do, in the first round, the Brazilian did appear to be much more patient and composed with his attack. He looked to pressure and counter without expending too much energy, which could be a sign of better things to come for the 31 year-old finisher.

THE ODDS: St. Preux (-165), de Lima (+140)

THE PICK: Unlike the main and co-main events, there is every chance that this fight could go either way. One of these fighters has competed at a higher level but appears to be sliding into untrustworthy territory; the other could possibly be finding his footing after a consistently inconsistent career. With St. Preux coasting through his recent fights and having recently been savagely knocked out for the first time in seven years, he could be primed as a steppingstone for the uber-dangerous de Lima. The pick is de Lima by second-round TKO.

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