Preview: UFC on Fox 24 ‘Johnson vs. Reis’

Middleweights

Ronaldo Souza (24-4) vs. Robert Whittaker (17-4)

THE MATCHUP: Souza came close to beating current No. 1 contender Yoel Romero in 2015, and he has dominated two lesser opponents since. He is undeniably one of the very best at 185 pounds and one of many viable contenders forced to wait for champion Michael Bisping to exhaust his supply of meaningless money fights. Much like Demian Maia at welterweight, who will take on Jorge Masvidal at UFC 211 despite the clearest claim to a shot at Tyron Woodley’s belt, “Jacare” will take on a dangerous style matchup while the divisional logjam sorts itself out.

Whittaker truly is a tough fight for “Jacare.” While he cannot hope to match Souza on the ground, he boasts one of the best rates of takedown defense in the UFC at 93 percent. It is worth pointing out that Whittaker has never faced a wrestler with the physicality and technique of Souza, who completes 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time; by the same token, “Jacare” has faced few boxers on Whittaker’s level. “The Reaper” is a shockingly powerful puncher with excellent footwork. He typically uses his lateral movement to bait opponents into counters, but he is also capable of taking the fight to his opponent if the need arises.

Most likely, “Jacare” will attempt to pressure Whittaker. He prefers to keep his opponents’ backs to the fence, which mitigates the fact that he is not particularly fleet-footed. Souza is a smart, tactical boxer despite his concrete feet. Not only can he explode very quickly when he throws a punch or shoots for a takedown, but he understands how his punches play off one another. The Brazilian will throw smashing body shots after threatening his right hand or use a body jab to set up a straight punch upstairs. If Whittaker hangs around in front of Souza, he may be surprised by the quality of his striking.

Of course, striking will be only a very small part of Souza’s game plan in this fight. Truly one of the best submission grapplers to ever grace the cage, “Jacare” has a decade’s worth of world and national accolades under his belt in competitive Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He uses keen timing to execute powerful takedowns, usually before slicing through his opponent’s guard like a wire drawn through soft clay. Seventeen of Souza’s 29 career wins have come via submission, and only the most exceptional wrestlers -- Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero -- have managed to thwart his ground game in the last eight years. The most Whittaker can hope to do if this fight goes to the ground is hang on for dear life and survive till the end of the round.

THE ODDS: Souza (-235), Whittaker (+185)

THE PICK: While Souza remains a top contender at middleweight, Whittaker has the tools to make his life miserable -- at least for 15 minutes. Whittaker excels at stopping takedowns, not only because he has excellent hips but because he stays mobile, denying his opponents to the opportunity to line up for a shot. While they follow him around, he uses a laser-guided jab to set up power shots. At middleweight, Whittaker has become increasingly comfortable throwing wild bombs, really letting his hands go to make the most of his speed advantage. Such a tactic could cause him trouble if “Jacare” changes levels and attacks his legs while he is committed to the knockout punch. Still, if “Jacare” cannot score takedowns in open space, he will struggle with the speed, accuracy and power of his adversary. The pick is Whittaker by unanimous decision.

Next Fight » Stephens vs. Carneiro