Preview: UFC 182 ‘Jones vs. Cormier’

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FLYWEIGHTS

Kyoji Horiguchi (14-1, 3-0 UFC) vs. Louis Gaudinot (6-3, 1-2 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Gaudinot returns to action after being forced off a UFC Fight Night lineup in October due to a bout with pneumonia. He faces a stiff test in Horiguchi, the best prospect to come out of Japan in years and by far the bluest of the blue chippers rising in the flyweight division. Horiguchi, a student of Norifumi Yamamoto, has won all three of his UFC outings with little trouble, and assuming he wins here, he will be on track for a matchup with a top contender.

Horiguchi is one of the most powerful pound-for-pound strikers in the UFC. Like his mentor, “Kid” Yamamoto, every shot Horiguchi throws packs enormous, go-to-sleep force, and he gets away with producing relatively little volume precisely because every landed strike carries a real threat of the knockout. It is not just that Horiguchi throws hard but also that he finds sneaky angles, weaves his shots around and under his opponent’s guard and has outstanding timing, showing great skill as a counter striker. Wrestling is also a strong suit, as Horiguchi is difficult to take down and even harder to hold there; offensively, he has an array of singles, doubles and clinch takedowns. If Horiguchi is excellent at range, he is even better from top position, where he shows strong posture, a heavy base and some of the most brutal ground strikes in the game.

Gaudinot is a potent striker. He throws clean, powerful punching combinations both moving forward and as counters, and he fills the space between them with thudding low kicks and the occasional spinning strike. Grappling is also a strength for Gaudinot, as he boasts a particularly nasty guillotine choke in transition to go along with decent passing skills from the top. Bigger opponents, however, have been able to consistently bully Gaudinot in the clinch and with takedowns, and he has had serious trouble keeping the fight standing. On his back, Gaudinot is active but not dangerous and has difficulty controlling his opponent in his guard and stopping positional advances.

BETTING ODDS: Horiguchi (-750), Gaudinot (+525)

THE PICK: Horiguchi is worlds better at everything except opportunistic submissions, and the only real question here is whether Gaudinot will survive to hear the final bell. The American is freakishly durable, and knocking him out would be a major accomplishment for Horiguchi. I think he is capable of doing so, but I will err on the side of caution and pick Horiguchi by decision in a fight that includes at least one knockdown and near-finish along with extended periods of top control and vicious ground strikes.

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