Preview: UFC Baku ‘Hill vs. Rountree’

Lightweights
Myktybek Orolbai (13-2-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. Tofiq Musayev (22-5, 0-0 UFC)
UFC Baku Betting Odds: Orolbai (-170), Musayev (+132)

When the UFC announced its debut in Azerbaijan, there was immediately speculation that Musayev—a well-decorated Rizin Fighting Federation and Bellator veteran—could make his debut on the card, and indeed, he makes his first trip to the Octagon here. Musayev had a massive breakout in 2019 for Rizin, putting together four big wins to make a case for himself as one of the best lightweights outside of the UFC, though things have gone a bit sideways in the last half decade. Musayev’s kept much less of an active schedule, and his two losses in his last five fights—a quick submission against Roberto Satoshi de Souza and a flat performance against range striker Alexander Shabliy—were each a bit uninspiring. But Musayev’s rebounded from the Shabliy loss with two knockout wins and should be a welcome addition to the proceedings at 155 pounds, blending a solid mix of powerful striking and wrestling that should make him a tough out at the very worst. The UFC has decidedly chosen not to ease Musayev into the promotion, as Orolbai should be a stout challenge despite coming off his first UFC loss.



Kyrgyzstan’s Orolbai came to the UFC as a welterweight prospect and looked impressive even there, showing the beginnings of an effective striking game in his last few regional fights, which complemented the crushing wrestling game he used to put away Uros Medic in his UFC debut. Orolbai then dropped down to lightweight, where he’s continued to look like an excellent prospect even if some cracks are starting to show. He’s much more of a powerhouse, but he’s had to fight through exhaustion near the end of his last two fights against Elves Brener and Mateusz Rebecki, the latter of which kept up the pressure enough to outlast Orolbai for a bloody decision victory. Orolbai’s durability and doggedness should pay some dividends no matter what, but in a fight that feels like a bit of a coinflip, the lean is that Musayev’s own physical sturdiness along with his experience is enough to keep him ahead in a fight that won’t be easy for either man. The pick is Musayev via decision.

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Hill vs. Rountree
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Orolbai vs. Musayev
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The Prelims