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Women’s Strawweights

Josefine Lindgren Knutsson (8-0, 2-0 UFC) vs. Piera Rodriguez (9-2, 2-2 UFC)

ODDS: Knutsson (-230), Rodriguez (+190)

Two strawweights look for a standout performance here. Rodriguez looked like a solid talent coming off the 2021 edition of the Contender Series. Her contract-earning victory over Valesca Machado has aged well, and she kicked off her UFC career with solid victories over Kay Hansen and Sam Hughes. The Venezuelan is probably at her best as a striker, but Rodriguez’s success does seem to hinge on her ability to overpower and outwrestle her opponents—a point driven home by her first career loss to Gillian Robertson in 2023 that saw “La Fiera” get taken down and succumb to an armbar. The good news for Rodriguez is that she was able to get the better of Ariane Carnelossi, whose entire game centers around powerful wrestling, in May. The bad news is that Rodriguez still managed to lose the fight, losing her cool and getting disqualified due to repeated intentional headbutts. It’s a bit of a surprise that the UFC is keeping Rodriguez around given that background, but she could get back in the win column against Sweden’s Knutsson.

Knutsson took the long road to a UFC contract, getting passed over after wins on both “Road to UFC” and the Contender Series, during which she looked UFC-ready if unexciting—a trend that has held true since she got signed as a late replacement in 2023. Knutsson’s stocky frame typically forces her to fight her opponents in close quarters, and while she has some physical power, there just isn’t a ton of pop to her game. Knutsson is well-practiced but not particularly dynamic, making her a decision machine who has struggled to separate herself—sometimes literally—even in fights where she holds some clear advantages. Rodriguez is a similarly stout fighter, so this could be a bout where Knutsson’s kicking game can pay off a bit, but the general read is that the Venezuelan should have the advantage in an ugly grind. The pick is Rodriguez via decision.

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Knutsson vs. Rodriguez