Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 242 ‘Burns vs. Brady’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday dishes out an appetizer of a card a week before the blockbuster UFC 306 event at The Sphere. This UFC Apex-run show brings a decent bit of divisional relevance at the top of the billing, and several matchups promise some brutal action for as long as they last. The UFC Fight Night 242 edition of Prime Picks features a former title challenger who should not be slept on and a way to profit off the largest betting favorite ever seen in the Octagon.

Gilbert Burns (+155)

When an aging fighter gets his chin checked devastatingly, the immediate question always arises whether this is the beginning of the end. Former lightweight Burns is no spring chicken in the cage, having accumulated plenty of fight miles and the recipient of numerous punches to the face from many of the best welterweights on the planet. It is not a sudden cause for alarm in the case of Burns, given that when facing Jack Della Maddalena in March, he was well up on the scorecards until a few uppercuts caught him just right. “JDM” is the kind of striker who can finish the job when smelling blood, and he did just that by notching the late comeback. Even though Burns has lost four of his last seven outings, the ways he has fallen short are not typically how Sean Brady wins fights.

Brady would like nothing more than to secure top position, force Burns to play jiu-jitsu off his back and work away with ground-and-pound. The Brazilian’s defensive wrestling is not exceptional, making this a possibility for the early going. However, Brady has shown that this type of approach wears him out, having displayed more than once that he can run out of gas even when he’s in the driver’s seat. While Burns is no master of the five-rounder, his power and quick-strike submission ability do not tend to fade much, even when he’s on his back foot for prolonged stretches.

A Renzo Gracie Philly fighter, Brady sometimes fights to his detriment, searching for a submission or pushing so hard that he cannot keep that pace. Barring a stunner the level of Anthony Hernandez over Rodolfo Vieira or Andre Muniz over Ronaldo Souza, Brady is not likely to become the first fighter in MMA to submit “Durinho.” However, Burns is more than capable of subbing him, even if he’s put on his back. Armbars tend to be his bread-and-butter in competition, and one moment of carelessness for Brady could place him in the danger zone. Considering these two will have 25 minutes to work, Burns should have the upper hand barring an unexpected injury like when he battled Belal Muhammad.

Isaac Dulgarian Wins in Round 1 (-200)

Factory X product Dulgarian has the genuine possibility of making UFC history that might not be matched for quite some time. The 28-year-old currently serves as a -2800 betting favorite ahead of his pairing with New Hampshire native Brendon Marotte (+1100). Coming into this fight card, the most heavily favored fighter was Alexander Romanov, who checked in with -2000 odds against Chase Sherman in 2022. Dulgarian can smash that with this ludicrous number on his side, even coming off a loss that ejected him from the ranks of the unbeaten. The promotion intentionally booked this fight, which was not a replacement or a late addition to the billing. With all of his wins in the first round and facing off against a competitor some argue needed more development on the regional scene, Dulgarian blazing through Marotte with these odds is still worthwhile.

With most of his previous bouts coming in the confines of the Combat Zone organization in New England and the rest through CES MMA, Marotte has not had the pleasure of encountering much top-flight opposition; his first five wins came over foes with a combined record of 5-10-1. When squaring up against his first UFC-level adversary in Terrance McKinney, he folded like a flan in a cupboard in 20 seconds. If the version of Dulgarian that elbowed his way through Francis Marshall is anywhere near what walks to the cage on Saturday, he should be able to do something similar, albeit in less time. “The MidWest Choppa” is not paid by the hour, nor does he fight in such a fashion, as he will promptly pursue any stoppage he can find.